With fewer than nine months to go before Election Day, The Signal predicts that Barack Obama will win the presidential contest with 303 electoral votes to the Republican nominee's 235.
Campaigns and candidates evolve, and elections are dynamic events with more variables than can reasonably be distilled in an equation. But the data--based on a prediction engine created by Yahoo! scientists--suggest a second term is likely for the current president. This model does not use polls or prediction markets to directly gauge what voters are thinking. Instead, it forecasts the results of the Electoral College based on past elections, economic indicators, measures of state ideology, presidential approval ratings, incumbency, and a few other politically agnostic factors.
We'll dip into what the model says in a moment, but first a note about models in general: there are a lot of them, from complex equations generated by nerdy academics to funny coincidences like the Redskins Rule , which holds that the incumbent party keeps the White House if Washington's football team wins its last home game. (This is true in 17 of the last 18 elections!) Every year, some of these models are right and some are wrong, and the difference is often just luck. As a result, models get a bad rap as being very good at predicting the past and lousy at predicting the future .
From YAHOO.com
Angel update
14 hours ago
5 comments:
The election is a longtime off and anything is predictable and possible. I personally think that of all the Republican candidates Romney faces the most uphill battle. I base that on a Yahoo study did during the 2008 election. I think I copied it on my old computer. But they did comparison polls on all the candidates and Romney was among the most discriminated on by those polled. His bi failing was people did not want him president because he was Mormon. He scored worse than all ethnics except Muslims and was even lower than more traditionally discriminated groups like homosexuals.
theScoundrel
Anything that excites Conservatives to get off their lazy butts and go to the polls is worth a post. Be afraid; be very afraid!
Ghost this is some numbers from the Yahoo! Poll I mentioned. The interesting thing to look at was that over 50% of those interviewed had some to strong reservation in supporting a Mormon candidate. I found that attitude silly. I figure they must not like Donny and Marie Osmond or their brothers either!
Interview dates: November 2-12, 2007
Interviews: 2,230 adults; 1,869 registered voters
1,049 Democrats; 827 Republicans
CQ4. Regardless of the specific candidates who are running for president, we’d like to know how you generally feel about some different traits. What best describes how you feel about supporting a candidate who has each of the following traits?
Enthusiastic - Comfortable - Have some reservations - Very uncomfortable - Makes no difference
to me - Refused /Not Answered
Someone who is a
Mormon
Enthusiastic 2%
Comfortable 18%
Some reservations 30%
Very Uncomfortable 20%
Makes No difference 29%
Refused/did not answer 1%
theScoundrel
oops I meant they had some to strong reservations against supporting a Mormon. Meanwhile most minority groups scored better than Mormons in the poll.
theScoundrel
Thank you, Sir. Very informative, interesting and helpful. Judging by the hit-count, this info is sincerely appreciated.
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